Results
What the program did in 30 months of real market data, after fees, and the live test that is running now. Losses are shown next to profits.
The backtest in numbers
Backtest
- Every year positive
- 3 of 3
- Every contract positive
- 11 of 11
- Profit factor
- 1.30
- Largest drawdown
- -$2,483
Straight from the MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester
Backtest
Each quarterly MNQ contract was tested on its own, with 100% real ticks. These are the tester's own reports, unchanged. Click one to see it full size. The tester shows results before fees; the figure under each report is after $2.00 per trade.
+$673.00 after fees, 83 trades
+$3,089.50 after fees, 143 trades
+$1,842.00 after fees, 124 trades
+$3,540.50 after fees, 130 trades
+$4,450.00 after fees, 168 trades
+$718.00 after fees, 110 trades
+$816.00 after fees, 142 trades
+$3,300.00 after fees, 140 trades
+$4,003.50 after fees, 193 trades
+$3,006.50 after fees, 200 trades
+$1,790.00 after fees, 52 trades
Month by month, with costs
Backtest
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | +172.50 | +561.00 | -352.50 | +2,197.00 | -23.50 | +231.00 | +454.00 | +1,051.00 | +2,218.00 | +6,508.50 | |||
| 2025 | -136.50 | +1,495.00 | +1,702.50 | +5,490.00 | -548.00 | -1,520.00 | +393.00 | +962.50 | -351.00 | +345.50 | +1,915.00 | -582.50 | +9,165.50 |
| 2026 | -851.50 | +3,176.50 | +1,356.50 | -548.50 | +2,126.50 | +2,756.50 | +1,105.00 | +330.00 | +2,059.00 | +45.00 | +11,555.00 |
By year
Backtest
| Year | Net, no costs | Net, with costs | Net, costs + slippage | Profit factor (costs) | Max drawdown (costs) | Trades | Losing months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 (from 1 April) | 7,248.50 | 6,508.50 | 6,138.50 | 1.37 | -1,435 | 370 | 2 of 9 |
| 2025 | 10,273.50 | 9,165.50 | 8,611.50 | 1.28 | -2,483 | 554 | 5 of 12 |
| 2026 (to 9 October) | 12,677.00 | 11,555.00 | 10,994.00 | 1.30 | -2,116 | 561 | 2 of 10 |
The two strategies separately
Backtest
| With costs ($2.00) | Net | Profit factor | Max drawdown | Trades | Winning | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy 1 (trend) | 13,437.00 | 1.37 | -1,160.50 | 906 | 45.7% | 550.50 | 4,289.50 | 8,597.00 |
| Strategy 2 (opening range) | 13,792.00 | 1.26 | -2,611.00 | 579 | 33.9% | 5,958.00 | 4,876.00 | 2,958.00 |
Costs weigh more on Strategy 1: it trades more often (906 trades against 579) and its average trade is smaller. With costs, Strategy 1 was only just positive in 2024 (+$550.50, +$356.50 with slippage) and had 9 losing months out of 31. Strategy 2 was positive in every year. The two strategies never hold a position at the same time.
All the numbers
Backtest
Opening Bell Algo for MT5 version 1.00, default inputs, 1 MNQ contract, $50,000 starting balance. MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester with 100% real ticks, on the 11 quarterly MNQ contracts from June 2024 (MNQM24) to December 2026 (MNQZ26), each tested in its own front-month period. Test period: 1 April 2024 to 9 October 2026. All amounts in US dollars.
| Measure | No costs | With costs ($2.00 per round turn) | Costs + slippage ($3.00 per round turn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit | 30,199.00 | 27,229.00 | 25,744.00 |
| Profit factor | 1.34 | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| Maximum drawdown (closed trades) | -2,196.50 | -2,483.00 | -2,627.00 |
| Trades | 1,485 | 1,485 | 1,485 |
| Winning trades | 41.8% | 41.1% | 40.7% |
| Average trade | 20.34 | 18.34 | 17.34 |
| Losing months | 8 of 31 | 9 of 31 | 9 of 31 |
| Losing days | 341 of 634 | 343 of 634 | 344 of 634 |
| Largest daily loss (7 May 2025) | -661.50 | -673.50 | -679.50 |
| Longest losing streak | 15 trades | 15 trades | 15 trades |
| Worst run of consecutive losses | -1,542.50 | -1,570.50 | -1,584.50 |
| Total costs deducted | 0 | 2,970.00 | 4,455.00 |
The longest losing streak, 15 trades in a row, ran from 16 to 25 September 2024. With costs, the largest single loss was -$424.00 and the largest single win +$3,359.50. The maximum drawdown is measured on closed trades; the drawdown while trades are open is larger.
Distribution of trades and risk figures
Backtest
One day matters a lot
On 9 April 2025, the day the US paused new tariffs and the Nasdaq-100 moved sharply, Strategy 2 made one trade of +$3,359.50. That day produced +$3,655.00 in total, about 13% of the net profit with costs. Without that day, the backtest would show roughly $23,600 instead of $27,229.00. Days like that are rare and you should not count on them.
Live test
Live test
Not published yet. Version 1.00 is in its live test on a real AMP account: MNQ, netting, default settings, 1 contract, no manual intervention. The first report will appear here once there is a full month to report, with a link to the monitored MQL5 signal.
- Every trade will be listed, losing trades included, with entry and exit time in New York time.
- Each month we run the backtest on the same period and publish the differences.
- If anything is done by hand on the account, for example after an error, it is written in the report.
- If the live test does not confirm the backtest, we will say so here and keep the record public.
| # | Strategy | Direction | Entry (New York) | Exit (New York) | Result (USD) | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The trade log will be published with the first monthly report. | ||||||
How the backtest was made
- Data. MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester, "Every tick based on real ticks", on the tick history of a futures broker (AMP). Each quarterly contract is tested in the period when it was the front month, from MNQM24 to MNQZ26.
- Costs. Measured on real account statements of the same broker from May to October 2026: $1.95 per round turn per contract, all fees included. We used $2.00. The cost is deducted from every closed trade.
- Slippage scenario. One tick ($0.50 on MNQ) on every entry and every exit, $3.00 per round turn in total. It is a cautious assumption: exits at the take profit are limit orders and do not usually slip against you.
- Settings. Default inputs, 1 contract, no optimization per contract.
- In-sample. The rules and their settings were developed during research that used market data from this same period. These results are therefore in-sample. The live test above is the out-of-sample check.
- Limits. Slippage is modelled as a fixed cost; it does not change when a stop is hit. At a broker that charges commission inside the deal, the daily target and the pause after winning trades can trigger slightly differently. This is not tested.
NAS100 CFD: in testing
The NAS100 CFD profile is not supported yet. We fixed the criteria before testing, so that we cannot pick them after seeing the result:
- the same settings as on MNQ, in index points, with no optimization per broker;
- a profit factor of at least 1.15 after spread and commission, over the whole period;
- positive in every year tested;
- a maximum drawdown no larger than 1.5 times the MNQ drawdown at the same exposure;
- passing at at least 2 of 3 brokers.
Status: 1 broker of 3 tested, on an earlier set of rules; that test is being repeated on the current version. It passed, narrowly (profit factor 1.16). Strategy 2 behaved as on futures; Strategy 1 was weaker on the CFD, where the overnight spread is wider. We will publish the full NAS100 results once the second broker is done. If NAS100 does not pass, the product stays MNQ and NQ only and we will say so here.